Insiders predict a wave of launch of test networks
Of course, there were a lot of technical documentation, prototypes, and theories, but in the real world of the ICO in 2017, everything revolves around one topic – money, and with – lots of money. At the beginning of 2018, people close to the sphere actively using the world’s cryptocurrency for startup models, see a slightly different story. They are sure that the initial projects, prototypes, and conferences will be preserved. But certain changes are coming. Insiders predict a wave of test networks and beta versions as the separation of grains from the chaff and the emergence of differences between the projects.
The stakes are rising, and CoinDesk has compiled a list of trends that we can see in 2018.
1. Nuts will twist and farther
Despite the ongoing discussion around the world, most experts agree that governments of different countries will not give the crypto-currency community the answer to the main question and will not clarify the policy of regulation. In the search for answers, this year will have to look into the courts, which, most likely, will determine the further actions in relation to the issuers.
“Important news would be actions against investors in the cryptocurrency,” said former Nicholas Morgan, a lawyer for the Securities and Stock Market State Commission (SEC), now working in Paul Hastings, hinting at companies that release tokens without providing exhaustive information, as well as brokers and stock exchanges not properly registered.
“ICOs who want to play by the rules should get used to the need to meet existing requirements from other industries,” said another former SEC official, Timothy Peterson of Murphy and McGonigle.
He said that “ICO should get used to the need to comply with legal regulations.” As with any complex financial product, this is “part of doing business,” he said. However, even if the SEC or the CFTC really starts issuing draft requirements, most experts believe that they are unlikely to get legal force this year.
2.Financing will increase
It is noteworthy that none of the experts with whom CoinDesk spoke out about reducing overall investment in 2018. Although the size of the projects may change.
“Now we are seeing both huge and small, faster projects,” said Wendy Schedek, vice chairman of Northzone. Like many other investors, she predicted that the projects will most likely be broken up into many small businesses whose structure will be more like a traditional venture business.
“Actions will continue to shift toward closed sales, and the number of tokens for a wider audience will continue to decline, or, in some cases, may disappear altogether,” predicted MacLaine Wilkison, co-founder of NuCypher.
3. Startups can start searching for alternatives to the Ethereum
To satisfy the needs of a wide audience, the Ethereum will have to process significantly more transactions in a much shorter time. Kik already became disillusioned with this in December, and we saw the launch of an ICO worth $ 39 million on Stellar. Although in general, the founders continue to believe in the successful play of the Ethereum.
“Efirium remains the clear leader in the number of users and tools for developers. We warmly support Plasma and the OmiseGO team in their development, “CoinDesk told Josh Frazer of the Origin Protocol.
Wilkison agrees with him but predicts the holding of a major ICO at Stellar in 2018, as well as the further development of other protocols. The main investigator of one such protocol, Definitely, told The Third Web that the only real solution is an unlimited amount of transactions.
Once the maximum is reached, entrepreneurs overload and scramble the network. However, many entrepreneurs have told CoinDesk that they have a “plan B” in case the etherium problem is not solved.
4. Decentralized applications will grow
Brighton Williams of Boost VC has already announced in 2018 the “talent and change” in the Medium. “Boost VC has always supported developers, but now we are introducing some changes and we want to support those who were going to leave us,” Williams wrote. Thus, entrepreneurs will experience strong pressure when providing products to users, and people can start using tokens according to their purpose.
In fact, ICO worth $ 100 million, Status, invested $ 5 million in New Vector, the company behind the decentralized alternative to Slack called Riot.im, so it can be assumed that soon this company will use the already familiar protocol in the crypto currency community.
Alpha and beta versions should be released immediately in 2018. It’s interesting to see what happens to token prices when users first try them and realize that (like most early replays) they are awkward and slow.
“I think it’s likely that prices have outperformed actual progress,” said Chris Dickson in a recent issue of Andreessen Horowitz.
5. The economy of tokens will be checked for
The main question for 2018 is how do the utility tokens behave if they have actual value? In fact, none of them have it yet. Kylie Samani of Multicoin wrote a post about the speed of token distribution at the end of 2017, in which she reasoned that tokens should give users a good reason to want to keep them, otherwise the value of the tokens would inevitably drop to zero.
It seems that we managed to reach a consensus on this idea, but it is still necessary to check the environment in which new tokens will be applied. In addition, we will have to test another assumption for 2018: Will a wider distribution of tokens facilitate their accelerated adoption, what do many founders believe, or do investors and users really belong to two different camps?
Whether it works or not is still unclear, but many experts are confident that we will see more closed sales than public ones.
6. Consumer awareness will grow
Terminology will expand as more people become better at understanding the economy of tokens.
And as the development of this sphere will also increase the vocabulary of terms. Most discussions about the ICO divide tokens into two categories (value tokens and securities-type tokens) with an eye to the regulators’ concerns. “These are traditional ideas that were invented on the basis of public speculation,” said Shedek CoinDesk. We saw that many leaders apply different categories.
Tokensoft co-founder Mason Borda talked about “tokens-awards”, designed to encourage users to perform certain actions. In Andreesen Horowitz, Nick Tomaino shared the idea of “working tokens.” These tokens represent shares, allowing users to earn on the protocol.
Filecoin, Augur and NuCypher included this feature in their tokens. “I think the most interesting working token will appear if the etherium switches from the Proof-of-Work principle to Proof-of-Stake,” Tomaino shared his thoughts.
As entrepreneurs improve the description and categorization of their creations, the community as a whole will learn to better understand this industry.
7. Traditional companies decentralize (or begin to sell tokens)
This may be either the main theme of 2018, or complete nonsense. Most experts believe that the usual companies will come up with reasons for releasing tokens and raising funds. Even Mark Zuckerberg said he will study the blockchain this year, and according to reports, Telegram is already in search of a billion dollars of investment.
“I’m assuming that the largest giants already are in their state of the person who is experimenting or studying this topic to ensure that they do not miss a good opportunity,” Williams said, but at the same time he noted that such companies are likely to be move in this direction at a low speed.
We asked several large concerns whether they had developments in the ICO field, but all the respondents denied this fact. If such companies are really interested in decentralization, Shedek noted that this would be “good, because such a process will make the creation of value more democratic,” and “contribute to the overall development of the crypto-currency sector.”
However, Wilkison argued with this idea: “Large companies involved in ICO, there will be no real need for decentralization.” He believes that, most likely, in many cases, tokens will contradict existing business models.